Tag Archives: History versus Future

December 21, 2012: Doomsday? Or just another Day?

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On December 21, 2012, the Maya Long Count Calendar will reach an end. What happens next? The 2012 Doomsday? Or will it be just another day?

The 2012 Doomsday Phenomenon

We’ve talked about the 2012 Doomsday phenomenon before, but here’s a quick background. According to the Maya codice Popol Vuh, we’re currently living in the fourth world of creation. After the first three worlds failed, the Maya gods created the current version of mankind.

Now, the Classic Maya civilization used something called the Long Count Calendar. As best as we can determine, each date was described using five separate numbers. The largest number they used was a b’ak’tun, which was equivalent to 144,000 days, or roughly 394 years.

Each of the previous Maya worlds supposedly lasted 13 b’ak’tuns, or a grand total of 5,126 years. Some scholars have attempted to match up the Gregorian calendar with the Long Count calendar. They think the current world of creation started on August 11, 3114 BC. The end of the 13th b’ak’tun (and thus, the end of the fourth world of creation) is supposed to take place on December 21, 2012. Some consider this to be the 2012 Doomsday.

What’s New?

Several months ago, archaeologists Marcello A. Canuto and Tomás Barrientos were excavating a building at “Site Q” in Guatemala which had been seemingly stripped by treasure hunters. They unearthed 22 carved stones. And when added with other stones recovered from the black market, they were able to piece together 264 hieroglyphs.

Dr. David Stuart deciphered the text and found it covered about 200 years of history at “Site Q.” One portion of text commemorated a visit in 696 AD by a Maya king named Yuknoom Yich’aak K’ahk’.

The ancient text refers to Yuknoom Yich’aak K’ahk’ as the “13 K’atun lord.” But what does this mean? Well, each b’ak’tun is made up of 20 k’atun, which are equivalent to about 20 years apiece.

In 692 AD, the 13th k’atun cycle of the 9th b’ak’tun came to an end. Based on the text, it appears Yuknoom Yich’aak K’ahk’ was king at that time. It was a fairly significant date. But not nearly as significant as, say, the end of the 13th b’ak’tun cycle.

Canuto and Barrientos theorize that Yuknoom Yich’aak K’ahk’ decided to connect these two dates via the number “13.” If true, it seems safe to assume he viewed the end of the 13th b’ak’tun cycle (and thus, the so-called 2012 Doomsday) as something to be revered, not feared.

“This new evidence suggests that the 13 Bak’tun date was an important calendrical event that would have been celebrated by the ancient Maya; however, they make no apocalyptic prophecies whatsoever regarding the date.” ~ Marcello A. Canuto, Maya archaeologists unearth new 2012 monument

Guerrilla Explorer’s Analysis

Truthfully, this new evidence appears pretty flimsy. We can’t know for sure why Yuknoom Yich’aak K’ahk’ called himself the “13 K’atun lord.” Maybe all rulers referred to themselves in this fashion. So, while the text itself is a tremendous archaeological find, we’re not sure it tells us much about how the Classic Mayas would’ve felt about the 2012 Doomsday theories. The Mayas were fascinated by time. According to the available evidence, they seem to have viewed it as a continuous cycle of worlds. However, there’s no evidence they saw December 21, 2012 as the ultimate doomsday. In fact, researchers have discovered references to post-2012 dates on several ancient Maya ruins.

“Recently, archaeologists discovered some very old Mayan astronomical tables at the Xultun ruins (well, they actually stumbled on them while chasing off treasure hunters). They discovered four long numbers on a wall which appear to reference a date 7,000 years past 813 AD.” ~ David Meyer, The Mayan Doomsday Prophecy?

All in all, the Classic Maya civilization was highly advanced for its time. But there’s no reason to believe they were capable of predicting anything. After all, if they were such great prophets, then how come they never saw the ending of their own civilization?

“And maybe the most important question to ask was voiced to me by Bill Saturno, discoverer of the San Bartolo murals. If the Maya were such skilled prophets, how could they have missed the Conquest? “Didn’t see that one coming, did they?” The single most devastating disaster to befall the peoples of the Americas of all time, and not a word about it in the entire corpus of Mayan prophetic literature.” ~ Mark Van Stone, 2012 FAQ

The Walking Statues of Easter Island?

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Easter Island is famous for its 887 giant statues, also called mo‘ai. But how did ancient people move these multi-ton sculptures from where they were built to their present locations? Well, according to legend, they didn’t do anything. Instead, the statues “walked.”

Background on Easter Island’s Moai

The heaviest statue on Easter Island weighs 86 tons. It was carved from compressed volcanic ash (called tuff) sometime between 1250 and 1500. It can be found at Ahu Tongariki, a stone platform on the island’s southern coast. It’s located about a kilometer from the stone quarry at Rano Raraku. So, this begs the question. How did ancient people move 86 tons of tuff from the quarry to the platform without modern equipment?

Many modern researchers believe moving the statues required deforestation. In other words, chieftains forced the islanders to cut down palm trees to serve as sleds, rollers, and/or levers. This deforestation supposedly destabilized Easter Island’s ecosystem. The result was diminished resources, famine, war, and ultimately, depopulation.

Did Easter Island Moai “Walk”?

The question of why civilizations collapse is a fascinating topic. And Easter Island, from a certain point of view, appears to provide an explanation…resource exploitation. Thus, environment-based researchers like Jared Diamond like to compare the Easter Island situation to the present world, suggesting the need for government-led climate intervention. Incidentally, we tend to have a very different theory about why civilizations collapse…excessive centralization.

Unfortunately, this determination to tie Easter Island’s history to our own future may have kept researchers from exploring other scenarios. Thus, a new theory on the statues has caused massive waves among academics. Archaeologist Carl Lipo and anthropologist Terry Hunt believe the statues moved via a very different mechanism…they “walked.”

In other words, the statues were lifted into a vertical position (or perhaps carved in that manner) and then rocked down roads using ropes. As you can see in this film, only eighteen people and three ropes were needed to maneuver a 10-foot tall, 5-ton replica of an Easter Island statue down a road.

Of course, this is just 5 tons. But Lipo and Hunt believe it’s scalable

“With the physics of the taller statue, you have greater leverage. It almost gets to the point where you would have to do it that way.” ~ Carl Lipo, Archaeologist

Dozens of fallen statues lie near the roads leading out of the main quarry. It’s possible they fell due to broken ropes or human error. They couldn’t be lifted again so they were abandoned.This theory threatens to overturn decades of research. Ancient Easter Islanders have long been viewed in somewhat derogatory fashion. Supposedly, they destroyed an island paradise because they couldn’t stop themselves from building and carrying their statues across the island.But this new theory would’ve required far less manpower and resources. In fact, it might’ve been seen as somewhat of a sport.

“You’re actually putting a lot of your effort into the process of moving a statue rather than fighting. Moving the moai was a little bit like playing a football game.” ~ Terry Hunt, Anthropologist

Why did Easter Island Collapse?

Also, Lipo and Hunt believe Easter Island was never a paradise. Instead, they think it was a rather difficult place to live. And indeed, archaeological evidence increasingly shows that the natives were “resourceful engineers” who learned to work with Easter Island’s limited resources. For example, they pulverized rock and used it as mulch to help grow crops in demineralized soil.

There is more at stake here than just how the statues were moved. Jared Diamond and others have attempted to use Easter Island in order to support their theories of ecocide. Thus, it should come as no surprise that Diamond took exception to Lipo’s and Hunt’s work.

“The islanders did inadvertently destroy the environmental underpinnings of their society. They did so, not because they were especially evil or deprived of foresight, but because they were ordinary people, living in a fragile environment, and subject to the usual human problems of clashes between group interests, clashes between individual and group interests, selfishness, and limited ability to predict the future. Does that remind you of any problems that we ourselves face today? That’s why we find Easter’s story so gripping, and why it may offer us lessons.” ~ Jared Diamond, ‘The Myths of Easter Island’ – Jared Diamond responds

Lipo and Hunt retorted by pointing out the many gaps in the current theories surrounding Easter Island.

“An important role of scholarship is to examine long-held myths and see if they hold up under modern scientific tests. The original Easter Island thesis, in any of its iterations, including Diamond’s, does not. Let us point out that we didn’t go to Easter Island to tear down Diamond’s thesis. We went there to support it by filling in the missing archeological data. It was only when we convinced ourselves that any iteration of that original story, including Diamond’s, had no archeological evidence to support it and much to contract it that we began to see where the research was leading us.” ~ Carl Lipo & Terry Hunt, ‘The Easter Island Ecocide Never Happened’ – response to Jared Diamond

Guerrilla Explorer’s Analysis

The debate over Easter Island is far from over. In fact, it’s just heating up. In many ways, it reminds me of the hotly-contested debate over what killed the dinosaurs (a debate that continues even today). But this, in our opinion, is a good thing. Comfortable theories and assumptions need to be shaken up from time to time.Lipo and Hunt’s statue-walking exhibition doesn’t really prove anything. But it shows that  “walking” via ropes and manpower was a possible method of transportation. Interestingly enough, it also fits with oral legends saying the statues “walked” down the roads to their present positions.If correct, what does this say about the ecocide theory? Well, not much in our opinion. The truth is, we’ve never bought into Diamond’s attempts to tie the past to the future. What happened on Easter Island hundreds of years ago has very little relevance to the present. In other words, we think “history has absolutely no predictive power.”

“The notion of a law of historical change is self-contradictory. History is a sequence of phenomena that are characterized by their singularity. Those features which an event has in common with other events are not historical.” ~ Ludwig von Mises, Theory and History

The Strange Collapse of the Harappan Civilization?

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Some 4,000 years ago, the mighty Harappan civilization accounted for 10% of the entire global population. Suddenly, this once-great society collapsed. What happened to the Harappan civilization?

Why did the Harappan Civilization Collapse?

The Harappan, or Indus, sprouted up 5,200 years ago. It grew into an ancient powerhouse, covering a massive area of 386,000 square miles, including parts of India, Pakistan, Nepal, and Bangladesh. Archaeological digs show it contained large cities, plumbing, sea links, trade routes, and a unique writing system (which has yet to be deciphered). But then, after more than 1,000 years of existence, the society began to crumble. People abandoned their homes and moved east.

“Antiquity knew about Egypt and Mesopotamia, but the Indus civilization, which was bigger than these two, was completely forgotten until the 1920s. There are still many things we don’t know about them.” ~ Liviu Giosan, Geologist, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

Recently, Liviu Giosan and a team of researchers collected vast amounts of data on the area’s geological history. They discovered that monsoon rains caused rivers to once flow through the region. These rivers were initially too wild to support agriculture. However, they started to weaken about 5,000 years ago, coinciding with the rise of the Harappan civilization. But eventually, the rivers dried up and the Harappan shifted east toward the still-wet Ganges basin. Thus, the “collapse.”

Why do Complex Societies Collapse?

The question of why complex societies collapse is an old one. These days, environmental explanations are all the rage. And it’s no accident. Throughout time, collapse theories have served as critiques of the modern world.

“Whereas collapses were once attributed to impious or selfish rulers, or in West’s view to indolent masses, in today’s framework the sin is gluttony: ancient societies collapsed because they overshot the carrying capacities of their environments, degrading their support bases in the process. And since it happened to past societies, it could happen to us too. According to contemporary literature, the next collapse will come because all of us have consumed too many goods, eaten too much, driven too far, and produced too many children.” ~ Joseph Tainter, Collapse, Sustainability, and the Environment: How Authors Choose to Fail or Succeed

Take the Classic Maya for example. The Maya used a complex water management system that depended on regular rainfall. So, when rain decreased for an extended period of time, the Classic Maya were supposedly unable to adjust. They proceeded to abandon their cities, causing the famous collapse of the Classic Maya civilization.

Sounds good right? Ancient climate change wrecks havoc and people move away, seeking better conditions. But that presents a problem. Complex societies are formed to deal with complex problems. So, why didn’t the Harrapan or the Maya find ways to deal with their environmental problems? Well, in all likelihood, they tried to. And thus, we would postulate that there is another reason for their collapses. Collapses, as Joseph Tainter once said, “happen.” They are a natural part of civilization.

“As a society faces problems, it becomes more complex in order to solve them. A central government creates “solutions” which consume resources and cause yet more problems. The society becomes increasingly complex, leading to the necessity of even more complex solutions. Eventually, the costs of maintaining such a complex society outweighs the benefits at the individual level. When problems arise – things like drought or invasion – the collapse of the society is more desirable than the alternative. At that point, the civilization undergoes a process of simplification.” ~ David Meyer, The Mystery of the Vanishing Maya

Interestingly enough, the Harappan didn’t construct new cities once they fled their old homes. Instead, they shifted toward “small farming communities.” This would appear to support the idea of deliberate simplification.

“Cities collapsed, but smaller agricultural communities were sustainable and flourished. Many of the urban arts, such as writing, faded away, but agriculture continued and actually diversified.” ~ Dorian Fuller, Archaeologist, University College London

Guerrilla Explorer’s Analysis

The desire for societal collapse might strike some of you as strange. But you have to remember that ancient societies weren’t uniform. Not everyone could be an astronomer or a high priest. Most people were ordinary workers.

As ancient societies got more complex, layers of bureaucrats, academics, and other “elites” began to form. The brunt of supporting these layers often fell on a particular group of people. These people built massive buildings, provided food, were pressed into wars, served as sacrificial victims, and paid taxes for the “privileges of society.” Under those conditions, many people would’ve found view the loss of complexity as a blessing. For example, studies have shown that the health and nutrition of peasants deteriorated during the rise of the Classic Maya. These same factors improved after the collapse.

It’s possible climate change served as a trigger for the collapse of the Harappan civilization. But many civilizations have managed to avoid similar collapses despite horrific droughts and famines. So, it seems quite possible to us that there is another explanation at play here. When the river began to dry up, it was the straw that broke the camel’s back. The cost of maintaining the complicated Harappan society just became too steep for the average peasant. Rather than stick it out, they decided to seek better lives. While we view this as a collapse, the ancient Harappan may have seen it differently. To them, it might’ve been a new beginning.

The Mayan Doomsday Prophecy?

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 On December 21, 2012, the Mayan Long Count calendar will reach the end of a 5,126 year cycle. Is this the 2012 doomsday? Or just another day?

The 2012 Doomsday Phenomenon

The 2012 Doomsday phenomenon has reached almost epic proportions. It’s been featured in numerous documentaries on the History Channel and the Discovery Channel. It was even made into a movie, the aptly named 2012.

So, what are the facts? According to the Maya codice Popol Vuh, we’re currently living in the fourth world of creation. In the first world, the Maya gods Kukulkán and Tepeu created man out of mud. The mud crumbled and so in the second world, the gods switched to wood. However, this version of mankind lacked souls and rebelled against the gods. The gods destroyed them with rain and then created a third world. This time, they constructed man out of maize. When this failed, the Maya gods created the current version of mankind.

Now, the Classic Maya civilization used something called the Long Count Calendar. As best as we can determine, each date was described using five separate numbers. The largest number they used was a b’ak’tun, which was equivalent to 144,000 days, or roughly 394 years.

Each of the above-mentioned worlds supposedly lasted 13 b’ak’tuns, or a grand total of about 5,126 years. Some scholars have attempted to match up the Gregorian calendar with the Long Count calendar. They think the current world of creation started on August 11, 3114 BC. The end of the 13th b’ak’tun will thus take place on December 21, 2012.

Did the Ancient Mayas Believe in a 2012 Doomsday?

So, that’s the background. But did the Mayas see this as doomsday? Well, it’s difficult to determine exactly what they thought about it. The Mayas were fascinated with the concept of time. They seemed to view it as a never-ending cycle of ends and new beginnings. So, it’s possible they would’ve viewed December 21, 2012 as a doomsday of sorts. However, there’s really no evidence to suggest they saw it as anything more than the completion of one cycle and the beginning of another. Indeed, many modern scholars think the ancient Maya would’ve seen December 21 as a major celebration.

One thing is clear. The Maya didn’t appear to view the end of the cycle as the ultimate doomsday. Researchers have discovered references to post-2012 dates on several ancient Maya ruins.

“At Palenque, for instance, they predicted that people in the year 4772 AD would be celebrating the anniversary of the coronation of their great king Pakal.” ~ Mark Van Stone, 2012 FAQ

Recently, archaeologists discovered some very old Mayan astronomical tables at the Xultun ruins (well, they actually stumbled on them while chasing off treasure hunters). They discovered four long numbers on a wall which appear to reference a date 7,000 years past 813 AD.

Overall, it would appear the Classic Maya expected the Earth to keep spinning well past December 21, 2012. Not that it really matters. There’s no reason to believe the Mayas possessed any prophetic skills whatsoever. After all, if they were such great prophets, then how come they never saw the ending of their own civilization?

“And maybe the most important question to ask was voiced to me by Bill Saturno, discoverer of the San Bartolo murals. If the Maya were such skilled prophets, how could they have missed the Conquest? “Didn’t see that one coming, did they?” The single most devastating disaster to befall the peoples of the Americas of all time, and not a word about it in the entire corpus of Mayan prophetic literature.” ~ Mark Van Stone, 2012 FAQ

David Meyer (the Guerrilla Explorer) at the Maya Ruins at Tikal

The Mysterious Missing Maya?

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Another week, another theory on what the mysterious Classic Maya collapse. As a reminder, the Classic Maya period took place in the southern Maya lowlands of the Yucatán Peninsula, starting around 200 AD. By 900 AD, this highly-advanced civilization had abandoned its great cities and seemingly vanished from the face of the Earth. So, what caused the mysterious Maya collapse?

What caused the Mysterious Maya Collapse?

What Caused the Mysterious Maya Collapse?
Description: David Meyer at the Maya Ruins at Tikal

The Mysterious Maya Collapse?

Over the years, a number of theories have been put forth to explain this “collapse,” ranging from invasion to epidemics to most recently, climate change. Last week, another theory emerged to grab the headlines. Like many others, it blames the collapse on climate change…as well as religion. Here’s a quick taste on this latest Maya collapse theory from Fox News:

Reoccupying elevated interior areas with large numbers of people would require intense labor to re-establish water management systems, helping to explain why they were left abandoned, the researchers noted. In contrast, dwelling in the neighboring, low-lying areas was less challenging, and evidence suggests that sites there were typically occupied continuously even when the major political and economic networks they were linked with collapsed.

At the same time, the Classic Maya would have implicated gods and their “divine” rulers for the collapse. In that way, their abandoned territories became thought of as chaotic, haunted places, and reclaiming any lands from the forest was at best done with great care and ritual. Survivors in outlying sites may often not have bothered…

Guerrilla Explorer’s Analysis

Most of our regular readers know we don’t place a lot of credence in the various climate change theories, all of which are far more problematic than the media would have you believe. Now, its possible the Classic Maya stayed away from their former cities out of religious concerns. However, there is an equally plausible explanation. Perhaps they just found themselves living a far better life after the “collapse” and saw no reason to return to their former cities. Here’s more on the Maya collapse from us here at Guerrilla Explorer:

I want to suggest another theory to explain the Classic Maya collapse…namely, excessive centralization. This theory is best expressed by Joseph Tainter in The Collapse of Complex Societies.

As a society faces problems, it becomes more complex in order to solve them. A central government creates “solutions” which consume resources and cause yet more problems. The society becomes increasingly complex, leading to the necessity of even more complex solutions. Eventually, the costs of maintaining such a complex society outweighs the benefits at the individual level. When problems arise – things like drought or invasion – the collapse of the society is more desirable than the alternative. At that point, the civilization undergoes a process of simplification.

Historians tend to favor the collective over the individual. So, they often see the collapse of a complex society as a bad thing. And indeed, societal collapse is often bad for elites. However, it can be a blessing for the average individual, leaving that person far better off. Consider it from the point of the individual. For hundreds of years, Maya peasants were forced to support the construction of gigantic monuments and agricultural projects as well as fight in various wars. However, many of these things were of little benefit to the individual. In fact, the health and nutrition of peasants deteriorated throughout the Classic Maya period. For many of these people, the loss of complexity brought individual improvement.

The mystery of what triggers caused the collapse of the Classic Maya civilization remains a mystery. Perhaps it was drought. Maybe it was war or disease. And we still don’t know what happened to the people of that civilization. Many of them may have died from the immediate triggers. There is also evidence to suggest they merely moved north, precipitating the rise of Chichen Itza in the northern Yucatán. Regardless, it would appear that the seeds for destruction for the Classic Maya were sewn many years earlier, thanks to excessive centralization.

(See more on the Classic Maya collapse at Guerrilla Explorer)

David Meyer, the Guerrilla Explorer, at Palenque

The Mystery of the Vanishing Maya?

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The Classic Maya Collapse is one of history’s greatest mysteries. How did it happen? And why do civilizations collapse?

What caused the Classic Maya Collapse?

Me at Palenque: What caused the Classic Maya Collapse?

The Classic Maya Collapse?

The Classic Maya period took place in the southern Maya lowlands of the Yucatán Peninsula, starting around 200 AD (you can see one of the remnants of that civilization up above…that’s Palenque which I visited a few months ago while searching for lost Maya ruins). By 900 AD, this highly-advanced civilization had abandoned its great cities and seemingly ceased to exist. Most scholars blame the Classic Maya collapse on things like invasion, epidemics, or climate change.

Why do Civilizations Collapse?

The question of why civilizations collapse is an old one. Many modern scientists have been heavily influenced by the environment-based theories of Jared Diamond. Even as you read this, the media is all abuzz about research purporting to show the Classic Maya Collapse occurred because of “relatively modest dry spells.” The Maya used a complex water management system that depended on regular rainfall. So, when rain decreased for an extended period of time, the Classic Maya were unable to adjust. As is all the rage these days, the researchers then compare this reasoning for the Classic Maya Collapse to the present world, suggesting the need for government-led climate intervention.

“Whereas collapses were once attributed to impious or selfish rulers, or in West’s view to indolent masses, in today’s framework the sin is gluttony: ancient societies collapsed because they overshot the carrying capacities of their environments, degrading their support bases in the process. And since it happened to past societies, it could happen to us too. According to contemporary literature, the next collapse will come because all of us have consumed too many goods, eaten too much, driven too far, and produced too many children. The Greek tragedy unfolds even as numerous Cassandras (including Diamond and Caldararo) warn us to mend our ways. Some students of ancient societies perceive in this development that we now have an opportunity to contribute to broad social thought, even to human well-being. There is, however, another strand of thought that holds humans blameless. Collapses happen.” ~ Joseph Tainter, Collapse, Sustainability, and the Environment: How Authors Choose to Fail or Succeed

The Problem of Excessive Centralization?

I don’t want to get into Diamond’s work or the various climate change theories, all of which are highly problematic. Instead, I want to suggest another theory to explain the Classic Maya collapse…namely, excessive centralization. This theory is best expressed by Joseph Tainter in The Collapse of Complex Societies.

As a society faces problems, it becomes more complex in order to solve them. A central government creates “solutions” which consume resources and cause yet more problems. The society becomes increasingly complex, leading to the necessity of even more complex solutions. Eventually, the costs of maintaining such a complex society outweighs the benefits at the individual level. When problems arise – things like drought or invasion – a civilization collapse is more desirable than the alternative. At that point, the civilization undergoes a process of simplification.

Guerrilla Explorer’s Analysis

Historians tend to favor the collective over the individual. So, they often see the collapse of a complex society as a bad thing. And indeed, societal collapse is often bad for elites. However, it can be a blessing for the average individual, leaving that person far better off. Consider it from the point of the individual. For hundreds of years, Maya peasants were forced to support the construction of gigantic monuments and agricultural projects as well as fight in various wars. However, many of these things were of little benefit to the individual. In fact, the health and nutrition of peasants deteriorated throughout the Classic Maya period. For many of these people, the Classic Maya collapse brought about individual improvement.

The mystery of what triggers caused the Classic Maya Collapse remain a mystery.  Perhaps it was drought. Maybe it was war or disease. And we still don’t know what happened to the people of that civilization. Many of them may have died from the immediate triggers. There is also evidence to suggest they merely moved north, precipitating the rise of Chichen Itza in the northern Yucatán. Regardless, it would appear that the seeds for the Classic Maya Collapse were sewn many years earlier, thanks to excessive centralization.

Does History Control the Future?

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History, we are often told, controls the future. One common refrain is that “those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.” But which history? Do “actions speak louder than words?” Or is “the pen mightier than the sword?” What are the lessons of history? Do such lessons even exist?

Control the Past, Control the Future

Many modern historians yearn to do more than just chronicle the past. They wish to be prophets of a sort, using the past to tell us how we should live. This involves compiling historical facts and then using those facts to generate “lessons of history.” And since history is viewed as an overwhelming force with predetermined outcomes, politicians are encouraged to use the giant size of government to combat those outcomes. All in all, since politicians often make decisions based lessons of history, historians are able to wield tremendous power by, in effect, “controlling the past.”

One example of this scenario is historian Michael Bellesiles. Bellesiles’s incredible downfall is recorded by Lew Rockwell in his piece, “Bellesiles: the Larger Context.”

“That is why Michael Bellesiles’s book Arming America: The Origins of a National Gun Culture seemed so notable. The thesis…was that gun ownership was not widespread before Lincoln’s war. Individual gun ownership is really a modern obsession; indeed it is an invention. The thesis seemed counterintuitive, but what scholars call the apparatus was there: immense footnotes and citations suggesting massive research. What really mattered was the subtext. It implied that the gun control advocates had history of their side, that personal ownership of firearms is no more necessary now than in frontier times…Once the original sources were checked out, it turned out that at all crucial junctures, the book was a hoax. His research…didn’t check out. His quotations of first-hand accounts were altered. He trimmed and cut the evidence to match his thesis.”

In other words, Bellesiles constructed false lessons of history in order to influence the present gun control debate. So, how are we supposed to learn from the past? How do we weed through the competing idioms and falsified research to come up with the true lessons of history?

Do Lessons of History Exist?

I would argue that the question is moot since history has absolutely no predictive power. In other words, there are no lessons of history.

“The notion of a law of historical change is self-contradictory. History is a sequence of phenomena that are characterized by their singularity. Those features which an event has in common with other events are not historical.” ~ Ludwig von Mises, Theory and History

Events in history are dependent on an exact sequence of very specific events involving very specific people with very specific emotions and ideas. Thus, Neville Chamberlain’s 1938 appeasement, which failed to stop Hitler’s advance, tells us nothing about how such a strategy would work elsewhere in time. Heck, we can’t even be sure that appeasement was the worst possible strategy.

“The favorite “alternate history” of the interventionists involves World War II and what “would” have happened had Chamberlain not “appeased” Hitler at Munich. “History teaches us,” so the common refrain runs, “that appeasing tyrants only leads to more killing and suffering later. If Hitler had been stopped in 1938, millions of deaths would have been averted.” History teaches us nothing of the sort. It teaches us that an agreement was reached with Hitler in 1938, which Chamberlain famously boasted would guarantee “peace in our time.” The next year, Germany attacked Poland, Britain and France declared war on Germany, and a long and bloody conflict ensued. History says nothing about what would have occurred had Britain and France gone to war in 1938. Nor does it teach us what might have happened had they not gone to war over Poland.” ~Gene Callahan

Guerrilla Explorer’s Analysis

History is not a natural science. It doesn’t allow for the creation of lessons and rules that serve to govern the future. Thus, the only time history can truly control our lives if when we let it do so. However, just because the past can’t inform the future doesn’t make it useless. Gene Callahan says it best: